One of the most frequent questions I get, and certainly the most frequent about craps, is whether dice setting is for real. Publicly until now I said I never saw enough evidence either way and had no position. Privately I was more skeptical. However in May 2004 Stanford Wong, whom I have enormous respect for, attended a 4-day seminar on dice setting and as a result reversed his position and gave what I think could be said is an endorsement. Shortly afterward I saw him at a social function and asked him about it. He obviously did believe that some people can influence the dice but that is was very difficult and something few have mastered.

Wong's comments inspired me to take dice setting more seriously. I had previously been in communication with Frank Scoblete and Larry Edell on the subject, suggesting that I be allowed to observe some top dice setters for myself. Both were agreeable but due to scheduling problems nothing ever came of it. Until recently I also lived within about one mile of dice coach Beau Parker so there was no good reason to keep avoiding the experiment. So after playing phone tag we finally met on July 22 with three other dice setters at the Bellagio.

Before starting Beau explained that dice setters are not able to control every single throw but only influence the dice towards certain numbers. At a 3-4-5x odds table the house edge is only 0.374% so it only takes a slight influence of the dice to overcome that house advantage. However a slight influence could take thousands of rolls to become obvious over the normal randomness of the game. So we both agreed one session was unlikely to prove anything.

As I emphasize on the topic of Internet casino cheating the proper way to make a case for a non-random game is to set up a hypothesis first, then gather data, and then statistically test the data for how well it fits the hypothesis. So I asked Beau what I should be testing for. He said on the come out roll that I should test for winning rolls of 7 and 11, and on all other rolls to test for rolling anything except a 7. Following are the specific results. Each come out roll begins a line.

Parker Experiment Results
Date	Casino	Shooter	Rolls
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Beau	7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Beau	2
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Beau	6,8,6
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Beau	8,7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Debbie	11
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Debbie	2
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Debbie	6,10,5,9,3,3,12,5,9,5,8,6
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Debbie	11
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Debbie	10,7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Pablo	7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Pablo	7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Pablo	5,7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Michael	10,7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Beau	4,7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Debbie	6,3,4,7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Pablo	9,2,4,6,8,4,2,10,5,8,5,5,11,8,6,2,8,7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Michael	11
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Michael	7
July 22, 2004	Bellagio	Michael	4,6,7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Beau	6,7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Debbie	8,11,6,6,9,4,10,6,6,7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Michael	6,6
July 22, 2004	Westin	Michael	5,4,5
July 22, 2004	Westin	Michael	4,5,12,4
July 22, 2004	Westin	Michael	9,7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Beau	7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Beau	7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Beau	9,6,5,8,9
July 22, 2004	Westin	Beau	6,11,4,3,7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Debbie	7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Debbie	5,6,3,11,6,6,5
July 22, 2004	Westin	Debbie	12
July 22, 2004	Westin	Debbie	11
July 22, 2004	Westin	Debbie	5,9,8,4,8,11,5
July 22, 2004	Westin	Debbie	7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Debbie	6,7
July 22, 2004	Westin	Michael	10,7

The next table summarizes the results. The sample size is too small to perform any robust tests. However just an eyeball test shows the results are thus far close to expectations in a random game. So clearly more testing needs to be done, and is planned for.

For more information on dice setting or professional lessons please visit Beau Parker's dicecoach.com.

In August 2004 debate was still raging at Stanford Wong's site bj21.com about dice setting. The discussion can be found under the member's only Green Chip section on craps. A professional gambler there challenged Wong to a bet. The terms of the bet were whether precision shooters could roll fewer than 79.5 sevens in 500 rolls of the dice. The expected number in a random game would be 83.33. The probability of rolling fewer than 79 or fewer sevens in 500 random rolls is 32.66%.

I was asked to be a monitor for the event but was out of the country at the time. However I did make an $1800 bet on the over with a well known gambling writer. The dates and locations of the event were kept very quiet and are not being made available to the public. The shooters were Wong himself and someone known only as "Little Joe." According to Wong the experiment went well and not one roll was called dead nor disputed by the two sides of the bet present at the event. The following table shows the results by shooter.

Congratulations to Wong on winning with five sevens to spare. The probability of rolling 74 or fewer sevens in 500 random rolls is 14.41%.

Looking only at the non-come out rolls where the goal is to not roll a seven there are 579 rolls between the two experiments and 88 sevens for a seven rate of 15.20%. Assuming this rate continued it would take at least 5000 rolls to make a solid case that the dice are in fact being influenced, in my opinion. The probability of 760 or fewer sevens in 5000 random rolls would be 0.29%. I hope to add more rolls to this ongoing study in the future.

Appendices

craps appendix 1 briefly shows how the house edge for each bet is derived.

craps appendix 2 displays the house edge of all the major bets on both a per bet made and per roll basis.

craps appendix 3 contains the results of two experiments on the topic of influencing the dice via carefully controlled throwing.

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